We were eating lunch two days ago under a willow tree on the Missouri when I noticed something hanging out over the brim of my hat. Normally, or at least up until I started guiding, I'm not going to lie but this little critter might have freaked me out a bit. I'd probably flick it into the water with a good deal of vigor and haste. The thing is, the more you rely on bugs for a living and the more you get acquainted with them, the less they freak you out and the more they peak your curiosity.
This is a skwala and if you know anything about stone flies and tail waters, you'd probably start asking the same questions I did. Mainly, "Where the hell did this thing come from?"
This is one of the cool things about fly fishing and sharing that with people. Bugs matter. Noticing things like this matters and trying to figure out if this is just some anomaly or is there something more significant happening can be a game changer.
I brushed this guy off the table we were camped out at and continued eating my sandwich but still kept the question of where this skwala came from in the back of my head. And then another one showed up and then a third...
Tail waters, like the Missouri River, are not know for stone fly hatches. We do see some skwalas in March and April but not many. We also get some golden stones throughout the summer in spots and fish do eat them but again, it's not the main staple. The most prevalent stone fly we see are the yellow sallies. Seeing these guys at this time of the year and that many of them was definitely peaking some interest.
Stone flies are kind of weird. They can lay their eggs one year and those eggs often get covered in silt or mud and can lay dormant for years until the conditions are right. Those conditions include oxygen, sunlight or energy and water temperature and of course, a way to get out of the mud. If we have a series of years where high water doesn't come, that can really put a damper on the bugs because of the amount of silt that settles in on top of them. This year, we have a significant amount of water in the system and although we haven't hit the benchmark, where the biologists would like the flows to get in order to do a significant flush, we're pretty close and I think this skwala is evidence that many of these bugs are getting uncovered.
The Missouri River is just under 14,000 cfs right now on May 16th. The biologists say they would like to see the flows above 14,000 for a few days to get that good scouring of the gravel. It's a little confusing on who actually regulates the dam but the Bureau of Reclamation has been really cautious this year to not allow flooding down stream. They drew down Canyon Ferry Reservoir to less than 70% of capacity, not including the flood control pool, planning for an epic run off. A lot of people have been predicting flows above 20,000 cfs. It has happened before but I actually rode up the chair lift at The Great Divide ski hill a month or so ago with a guy from the bureau who told me they won't let the river get above 25,000 cfs in Great Falls or they'll have major flooding.
If you do the math, with all the tribs contributing to the Missouri between the Holter Dam and Great Falls including the Little Prickly Pear, Dearborn, Sheep Creek, Sun and Smith Rivers, not to mention all the little tributaries, the Missouri can't get much higher coming out of the dam to keep from reaching that threshold down stream; especially given the amount of snow feeding those tributaries.
So here's the deal; we're at about 14,000 cfs now. Canyon Ferry is at 78% full. What's going into Canyon Ferry is about 18,000 and dropping. Although we still have flooding going on in the area with the creeks, most of the lower elevation snow is gone and those creeks will start dropping as well. Snow pack in the high country feeding the Missouri is a little over what is the average for this time of the year. What that means is there's still plenty of water to fill Canyon Ferry but unless we get some serious precipitation over the next couple weeks, what's coming out of Holter Dam is not going to go up that much higher. We've got the water to scour the river bed and all the jet skiers and boater will have plenty of water to play with in the reservoirs. I'm not going to call out a victory yet but I would say that the bureau did their job. (BTW, I set the over/under at 17,000 cfs a couple months ago and took the under. Again, we still have a month to see what's going to happen but I'm feeling pretty confident.)
So getting back to the skwala. If you look at the photo, you'll notice something else unique to this particular skwala but pretty common on the Missouri; its wings are underdeveloped. These guys can't fly. Nor can the majority of golden stones we get. That does have an affect on the way you fish them. You might keep that in mind.
As for the rest of the season and what we should expect? I think there are going to be a lot of bugs this year as long as water doesn't remain too high. A lot of folks are anticipating 7,000 cfs through August and are looking forward to that. I'd be careful what you wish for. High water on a tail water like the Missouri doesn't necessarily mean favorable conditions for trout and the bugs. The water coming out of the lower part of the dam is about 2,800 cfs. Anything more than that comes from the spillways at the top of the dam. That's surface water from the lake. That surface water can get up to 80 degrees if we have a hot summer. Honestly, I'd rather see 3,500 cfs after a good spring scouring than 7,000. We shall see.
Keep 'em where they live...
P.S. Montana Dream Fishing Outfitters still has openings for July but will book up quickly. The creeks and freestones will have plenty of water if you're into walk-wade trips and the Dearborn River should have a pretty good window to float it as well. The Missouri will fish well throughout July regardless of flows so you have plenty of options and we love to explore those options. Get in touch: www.mdfishingoutfitters.com. Book your dream trip today! And don't sleep on August either! Hoppers and crayfish...big browns? What more could you want?
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