Friday, May 17, 2019

Predicting the Next Month of Fishing on the Missouri




Part of the human condition is to predict outcomes. Some folks think that's our demise because it leads to expectations and then disappointment when those expectations aren't met. It also leads to criticism for those who publicly try to predict outcomes in such things like sports and politics. It's almost as if we hold those public opinions or those people that hold those opinions accountable for our disappointment. I doesn't really seem fair but then, those people are making a living off of those opinions so maybe they should be held responsible.

As it pertains to fishing and getting guided, people want information because they're spending a lot of time and money to come out to these places and they don't want it to be a waste. So they hear about all the snow we got out here and they get a little concerned about high water in the spring and whether or not it will even fish until late June. It's a valid question, especially after what happened last year. 

Last year we had close to 200% of normal snow pack. It was an epic year and we saw the Missouri go up to 22,000 cfs. That doesn't happen very often. It stayed really high throughout June and into July. The fishing early was a bit tough and you had to go really deep and really heavy and it didn't feel like fly fishing to a lot of folks. We also got a storm system in Mid-June that dumped 8 inches of rain in some places, which brought the Dearborn River up to 10,000 cfs. That's only happened once in recorded history. It blew out the entire lower stretch of the Missouri right when we all thought the rivers were coming down and we would start to see more desirable conditions. 

Spring storms can't be predicted but we can be pretty certain that we will get rain and it can have an affect on the fishing. Normally those storms have an impact for only a couple days and then things settle down. You play the odds and there's some risk. Snow pack and reservoir levels are a bit more predictable but we're not all privy to the information that goes into making the call to either release water or pull it back. For instance, this year the Midwest got hammered and they don't need more water so the Bureau is trying to help out with flood mitigation. But we can look at trends and see the charts and feel pretty good about a few things.

Water levels across the board have been really high this spring. You can look for yourself here: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/MT/nwis/current/?type=flow

Go to the site and click on your favorite rivers and you can see for yourself. The run-off has been early and rivers are higher than normal for this time of the year. But if you look at the charts above, you can see that snow pack is now down. That means a lot of the water that was in the system has already broken loose so rivers should start coming down sooner than normal barring any major storms that would change that. 

We can also look at the level of Canyon Ferry, which is probably the best indicator of what's going to happen with the Missouri. The Bureau has managed Canyon Ferry as if we had comparable snow pack with last year. We don't have even half of what we had last year so again, if you look at the flow for the Missouri below Holter, you can see that they're now trying to play catch-up. Way more water is flowing in than flowing out and that's going to continue to happen until the reservoir reaches about 94% of capacity.

That's a really good thing for the anglers. For the next couple weeks and maybe even throughout June, water levels should remain pretty consistent to where they are now and right now, it's perfect. Fish are happy. Bugs are poppin. Life is good so it's time to stop hemming and hawing and get out on the river! Book your dream trip today!

Keep 'em where they live...


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