Monday, June 10, 2013

Conflicting Reports

The Missouri is LOW! Incredibly low for this time of year at 2,930 cfs. The median is 7,100. What I've been told is they shut down the Holter Dam because of flooding in the lower Missouri, which seems reasonable when looking back at the amount of precipitation we received in May and early June. However, I've been looking at a lot of different sites and I'm having a hard time figuring all this water crap out. Lot's of guys out here are thinking this summer is going to suck on the Mo. I'm a little more optimistic.

I can't find an current data on Canyon Ferry but what I have found doesn't look horrible. I know I said a few weeks ago it was 75% of capacity but through April it was over 95% of what is considered average and the most recent report I've seen says that as of June 1st, the Missouri reservoir storage was at 97% of average. State-wide is at 102%.

As for snow pack; that's a different and kind of confusing story. It seems weird to think that we are so much drier than normal given all the rain and snow in the higher elevations but that's what it's showing for most of the mountain ranges. However, that's an incredibly general statement as some mountain ranges, especially around Bozeman, are at normal levels right now.

What's probable most relevant however, might be the forecast for stream flow because that's what we are all trying to do is predict what the summer will look like. According to "Water Supply Outlook Report" just put out by the feds in cooperation with local government agencies and private interests, east of the Divide we are looking at 77% of average stream-flow through June and July and 89% west of the Divide. The Missouri specifically is looking at 74%. I told my buddy that we should see 4,500 again in the next week or so...we'll see. If their predictions are correct we will.

As for the fishing; we had a tougher day yesterday than we have been having although some guys seemed to be doing fine. The PMD's are going pretty good and we still have caddis. I had some younger kids yesterday with a steep learning curve but I thought we still should have been hooking fish up. The problem is, with the low water and high sun, you can't get close to fish without spooking them. They are there though, and they are eating.

The long-nosed suckers are back too...

Keep 'em where they live...

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